Dermo and MSX ride warm, salty water north. Growers find out after the die-off.
One rain event spikes coliform and the harvest stops.
A lease is a 20-year bet on water no one has measured.
Every lease, loan, policy and restoration site is a decision our suitability and disease layers de-risk — the screening layer they cannot build themselves.
Maine DMR leases run up to 20 years — gear, moorings and a fixed footprint a grower cannot move. The Gulf of Maine warms faster than ~99% of the global ocean (Saba et al. 2016), at 0.03–0.06°C/yr. Over a 20-year lease: 0.6–1.2°C of mean summer warming. The spatial pattern of suitability shifts within the estuary.
Method: delta-downscaling. Prithvi supplies 30m fine spatial structure; NWA12-MOM6 / CMIP6 supplies the decadal warming trend. Fused per-pixel at 2030 / 2035 / 2040 / 2045 horizons with quantified uncertainty.
Per-pixel OSI slope 2025→2045. Which parcels warm into the ideal band — and which warm through it.
Fraction of the 20-year term a pixel stays ≥ Moderate suitability. The question every lease decision asks.
The year a site rises above or drops below the suitability threshold — timing, not just ranking.
Term-mean OSI minus the lower ensemble bound. Ranks candidate sites by expected suitability net of climate downside.
Every public ocean signal, plus the grower outcomes no one else captures.
A dozen sources on one grid, in space and time.
Fine-tune an ocean foundation model on that corpus. Commercial + scientific value.
Suitability, disease and closures off-station, served by API.
Proven method, new domain: the same data-to-foundation-model playbook Darwin Geospatial ran for soil, forests and habitat, now pointed at the ocean.
Public ocean data in one visor. Live today.
Customers feed proprietary data no competitor can buy.
Predicts suitability, disease & closures anywhere. Licensed by API.
Each stage funds the next and earns the proprietary data for the one after it.
The visor wins customers, the customers feed the corpus, the corpus trains the model. Each track powers the next.
Founder of Darwin Geospatial. Geospatial & ML engineer building satellite-data decision platforms across soil, forests and habitat. Leads product, data and commercial.
Earth & planetary science and software engineering (Johns Hopkins). Owns the data-fusion pipeline, the suitability/disease models and the visor + API.
Senior Scientist & Professor, Earth & Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University. Ocean and climate modeling. Guides the science behind our models.
| Year | ARR | Composition / drivers | Product & data state |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 · 2026 | $30–75K | Maine co-op pilots, semi-paid | 3 pilot co-ops (Damariscotta, Casco Bay, New Meadows); hosted visor, accounts & alerts live |
| Y2 · 2027 | $150–350K | Maine expansion + Chesapeake entry + 1 agency | ~30–60 grower seats + first state agency; Chesapeake on live data |
| Y3 · 2028 | $0.4–0.9M | Multi-region growers + 2–3 agencies + first insurer | Off-station predictions in-product; metered B2B API live |
| Y4 · 2029 | $1.2–1.8M | Recurring base + agency renewals + 2nd insurer + restoration | Fine-tuned ocean foundation model serving predictions by API |
| Y5 · 2030 | $2–3M base / $5–8M upside | Growers $0.6–1.2M · agencies $0.3–0.5M · insurers $0.5–1.5M · restoration $0.2–0.5M | FM the licensed, high-margin asset; whole-coast, multi-region |
Base case, good execution. Figures indicative. The recurring grower and agency base is the plan we raise against; insurers and the foundation-model API land late and are the upside multiplier, not the assumption.
StartBlue (UC San Diego: Scripps + Rady) takes no equity. Two tracks by technology readiness: Launch for TRL 2–5, Scale for TRL 6+. We enter on the Scale track; our dilutive founding round runs separately.
Gabriel Díaz Ireland · gabriel.ireland@darwingeospatial.com
Darwin Oceans — a Darwin Geospatial venture · darwingeospatial.com